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Finding Expensive Assumptions

2026-08-12 · Kegan

Your organization has thousands of security assumptions, and most of them are not worth your time.

One Sentence of Impact

What is the one sentence you can say that would causes a change in the organization's direction? Time is scarce. Consider how your operation is shaping the security of the organization. What assumption are you breaking?

If disproven, this can begin conversations that result in significant architecural changes, identity controls, and segmentation.

If disproven, this can change the aquistion and onboarding pipeline

Expensive Assumptions are Expensive Risks

How many valuable items are at risk due to an assumption?

Consider the recent Coldcard Attack. 1367 bitcoin gone. With bitcoin currently valued at $63,000 this is a loss of over $80M. The assumption was that the device had suffient randomness when generating seed phrases. This assumption led to a catatrophic failure. Users never exposed their keys; they were not phished. The attacker was able to regenerate seed phrases based on timings and a device ID due to a weakness in how the phrases were generated.

Conclusion

Not all assumptions carry significant risk, but some do. How many dominoes fall based on a single assumption?